Many leaders in the West now are pushing the propaganda theme of an inevitable stalemate in the Ukraine war. In other words, Ukraine will fight Russia to a stand still. Well, that’s the delusional hope. Don’t take my word for it. Peruse these recent headlines:
America Must Plan for a Stalemate in Ukraine (New York Magazine)
Ukraine trying to end battlefield stalemate in what may be … (AP News)
Opinion | Ukraine must seize opportunity from Wagner … (The Washington Post)
Truce or a bloody stalemate? It all rides on Ukraine’s spring … (The Guardian)
What planet do these folks inhabit? A stalemate means that each side — i.e., Ukraine and Russia — are equally matched and enjoy no tactical or strategic advantage over the other. That is simply not the case with the “Special Military Operation” underway. Remember how Russia was running out of missiles? Western think tanks and pundits have been repeating that mantra since April of 2022. But the worm is turning:
According to a recent CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) article, Russia’s relentless campaign of strikes in 2023 has made one thing abundantly clear — the notion that Russia would eventually exhaust its missile supply is unrealistic. Despite facing sanctions and export controls, it is highly probable that Russia will continue to manufacture or acquire the necessary long-range strike capabilities to inflict significant damage on Ukraine
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Russia also enjoys a massive advantage in tanks, artillery, artillery shells, combat aircraft, helicopters, armored vehicles, mobile artillery, electronic warfare, ships, cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles. Oh yeah, almost forgot — Russia also has at least a ten to one advantage in manpower compared to Ukraine.
That is not all. Russia’s military installations for training new recruits are intact and operating 24/7. Ukraine, on the other hand, is forcibly conscripting new “troops” and they are being sent to other countries and subjected to shortened training programs. Russia’s economy is strong and its industrial base is the largest in the world except for China. In other words, Russia can produce everything it needs to sustain its combat operations in Ukraine.
Ukraine, by contrast, is totally dependent on the largesse of the United States and NATO countries. Without the Western money and continuing supply of weapons, Ukraine cannot sustain combat operations for more than two weeks. How is that a stalemate?
NATO is in the same position as Captain Smith of the Titanic after it was pummeled by the ice berg. They are trying to keep a sinking ship afloat but the structural damage is too severe. Desperation is setting in and there are disturbing signs that Ukraine is going to try to manufacture a nuclear incident at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant that it hopes will create a predicate for activation of NATO’s article 5 and bring NATO troops into the battle:
A special aircraft WC-135R Constant Phoenix of the US Air Force was deployed on June 30 to the Chania airbase in Crete. It is from this base that RQ-4B Global Hawk reconnaissance UAVs and RC-135W Rivet Joint aircraft fly to the Black Sea region.
WC-135R is designed to collect information about radioactive radiation and control nuclear tests.
The rarest visit of a special board may be connected with the preparation of a nuclear catastrophe by Kiev at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.
While I do not dismiss the Ukrainian threat to create a nuclear disaster, I believe that Russia has taken the necessary steps to shore up the defenses at Zaprorozhye. The upcoming meeting of NATO in Vilnius (July 12 and 13) will be rancorous. Poland continues to carp at Germany about paying reparations. France is burning and political turmoil is building. And Turkey is furious with Sweden over the recent desecration of the Koran while Swedish police stood by and did nothing. NATO is far from united and there is no evidence of a growing consensus to give more money and weapons to Ukraine. Hungary, for example, is calling for a halt in sending anything else to Ukraine.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban dug in his heels over crucial European Union aid to Ukraine, offering sympathy for his neighbor but nothing more to help it fight off Russia’s invasion.
Speaking in a Bloomberg interview at the Qatar Economic Forum, Orban argued that Ukraine’s military effort is doomed and sending further aid will only lead to more deaths.
“Emotionally it’s tragic, all of our hearts are with the Ukrainians,” Orban, 59, told Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait on Tuesday. “But I’m talking as a politician who should save lives.”
“There’s no chance to win this war,” he added.
I do not see a plausible case for stalemate. But a Ukrainian debacle is a more likely outcome.
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