NFL picks, odds and betting offers

Our NFL betting writer offers best betting predictions and picks for the Christmas Eve matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs scheduled to air at 1 p.m. ET on Saturday on FOX.

The Chiefs are tied with the Buffalo Bills for best record in the AFC but Buffalo owns the tiebreaker by winning in Kansas City earlier this season. Seattle is on the outside of the NFC playoff race but an upset over the Chiefs would provide a major boost to its postseason chances.

Seahawks vs. Chiefs picks

Seahawks vs. Chiefs predictions and analysis

Seattle has lost four of its last five games and another setback is going to be a major blow. Expect the Seahawks to put up a fight but there’s something about that expected bitter cold weather in Kansas City making it feel likely the Chiefs will cruise to their eighth victory in their past nine games.

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Chiefs cover -10

Kansas City has already wrapped up the AFC West for the seventh straight season but is still intent on competing to the hilt as it would like to gain homefield advantage for the postseason. A victory against the Seahawks would give the Chiefs at least 12 wins in all five seasons with Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback.

Mahomes needs 504 yards to reach 5,000 for the second time in his career and stands five TD passes away from hitting 40 for the second time. He leads the league in both categories (4,496 yards, 35 touchdowns) and his strong play is fueling an offense that leads the NFL in both scoring (29.6 points per game) and total offense (429.4 yards per game).

Tight end Travis Kelce is enjoying another monster season with 91 receptions for 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns Kansas is cranking again with back-to-back 30-point outings after failing to hit the mark in four of the previous five games.

Especially at less than full strength, Seattle can’t match the firepower of the Chiefs.

Seahawks vs. Chiefs pick: Chiefs cover -10 @ -110 via Caesars Sportsbook

Over 49 total points scored

Everybody figured the Seahawks downsized significantly when they traded Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos and Geno Smith eventually won the job to be his replacement. Funny how Seattle has the better quarterback here in December after Wilson has been a monumental flop in the Mile High City.

Smith leads the NFL with a 71.4 completion percentage and has 26 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. His touchdowns are a career best and so is his 3,671 yards as he has shined in gloomy Seattle in his first dose of full-time starting duty since 2014. His passer rating of 105.3 is second in the NFL, just ahead of Mahomes (105.0).

Seattle’s offensive line will have to keep Chiefs’ defensive tackle Chris Jones (11 sacks) from doing damage while Smith looks to team up with standout receiver DK Metcalf (79 catches, 924 yards). Rookie running back Kenneth Walker has taken advantage of Rashaad Penny’s broken ankle to rack up 696 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. But he’s also dealing with an ankle injury and backup DeeJay Dallas is ailing with his own ankle issue.

Though the Seahawks have been slumping, they have won three consecutive road games. The streak comes to an end, but the total is looking as a solid over projection.

Seahawks vs. Chiefs pick: Over 49 total points @ -110 via Caesars Sportsbook

Chiefs to score field goal on first drive

The Chiefs have been starting slow in recent games and haven’t scored a first-quarter touchdown since Week 12 against the Los Angeles Rams when they drove 90 yards on nine plays. That trend is something to watch in the cold environment against the Seahawks.

Last week against the Houston Texans, Kansas City punted on its first two possessions. The previous week, the Chiefs booted field goals on their first two drives against the Broncos and Kansas City had a field goal and a punt in Week 13 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Mahomes likes coming out aggressive to start games but right now opponents have kept him and his mates off-balance at the start of games. We don’t see the Chiefs reaching the end zone on Drive 1, we see it ending with a Harrison Butker field goal.

Seahawks vs. Chiefs pick: Chiefs to score field goal on first drive @ +410 via Caesars Sportsbook

Seahawks vs. Chiefs odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.