One day before Joel Embiid won the first NBA MVP award of his career, the 76ers outlasted the Celtics to steal Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal matchup with him on the sidelines.
What will they have in store for an encore?
They’ll likely have their star big man back, according to The Athletic, but oddsmakers don’t seem to expect it to happen based on the way they’ve priced the Celtics ahead of Game 2.
We’ve already seen Boston lose once as a heavy favorite in this series; will it happen again in an eerily similar spot?
Here’s how we’re betting Wednesday’s contest, which tips off at 8 p.m. ET on TNT.
Celtics vs. 76ers odds
(via BetMGM)
- Celtics -8.5 (-105), moneyline -550
- 76ers +8.5 (-115), moneyline +400
- O/U 216.5 (-110)
Celtics vs. 76ers prediction and analysis
(8 p.m. ET on TNT)
For the sake of argument, let’s assume the worst case scenario for the Sixers – that Embiid doesn’t actually play after all – and see if this would be the right price if the carpet were pulled at the last minute.
Two days ago, the Celtics entered Game 1 as double-digit favorites over a 76ers squad that had been essentially written off without its star center.
We all know how that one turned out: Philadelphia hung around into the fourth quarter and pulled off one of the 15 biggest postseason upsets in the last two decades.
So why, exactly, should we lay the points with Boston in a virtually identical scenario?
Sure, the Celtics probably should have won Game 1, maybe even in runaway fashion.
The team shot 85% in the first quarter and nearly 75% across the first half, and it finished with 58.7% efficiency from the field behind Jayson Tatum’s team-high 39 points and 11 rebounds.
Yet Boston’s defensive intensity never matched the moment, and the Sixers took full advantage, knocking down 17 triples to offset Embiid’s loss offensively.
They also forced 16 turnovers and held the C’s below 40% from deep – two bellwethers of postseason struggles for this talented but enigmatic group.
So what would change ahead of Game 2? It’s easy to write off a repeat performance from James Harden, who has remade himself as a facilitator in recent years, but he looked every bit like the former MVP that Philly traded for ahead of last year’s deadline.
Not only did Harden match his postseason career high in points (45) in Monday’s offensive masterpiece, but he also tied his playoff career high with seven 3-pointers and attempted his fewest free throws (4) of any postseason game with 30-plus points in his career – further underscoring just how incredible his shot-making was when his team needed it most.
In total, he attempted 30 shots in Monday’s win, his third-most in the postseason and his first playoff game with 22-plus attempts since leaving Houston in 2020.
Clearly, this was a different version of Harden that we saw in Game 1, and it’s hard to completely dismiss his ability to replicate that in Game 2 if Embiid can’t go.
The Sixers also survived a so-so shooting night from Tyrese Maxey (41.7%), who needed 24 shots to score 26 points but has shown moments of postseason brilliance before.
Crucially, their array of shooters flummoxed Boston’s defense and netted a combined 26 attempts from deep that were either “open” or “wide open,” per NBA’s shot tracking.
Betting on the NBA?
I don’t see that approach changing in Game 2.
The Celtics have lost the benefit of the doubt over the last two postseasons in their ability to suddenly stop turning the ball over or generate quality looks across 48 minutes.
They’ve also now lost two consecutive games as double-digit favorites: first in Game 5 against the Hawks and again in Game 1 of this series.
We may not see another outright loss on Wednesday, but I’d be leery of laying this many points on a team that simply hasn’t earned it.
And if Embiid is back, as we all expect? This price is not correct.
Celtics vs. 76ers pick
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