Quarterback is the most critical position in sports, and with the modern NFL only tilting more toward pass-first tendencies, a franchise signal-caller is of the utmost importance.
The hype around this year’s crop of draft-eligible quarterbacks has been significant, and there are a handful of players at the top of the class who teams will hope can alter a franchise’s trajectory.
USC’s Caleb Williams remains the favorite to be the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, with consensus odds of -10000 to be the first name called Thursday night in Detroit.
LSU’s Jayden Daniels and North Carolina’s Drake Maye are expected to be picked early in the first round, while Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy could make some noise at the top of the order.
The expectation is for five or more quarterbacks to come off the board on the opening night of the NFL Draft. BetMGM has over 4.5 first-round quarterbacks priced at -210 to the over and +160 to the under.
Meanwhile, DraftKings offers a more palatable -170 price on the over and +135 on the under.
Make sure to shop around, as odds can vary significantly across different sportsbooks.
Will five or more quarterbacks hear their names called this Thursday?
Let’s break down the two passers who will determine the result of this draft prop — Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.
2024 NFL Draft odds: Quarterbacks
Bo Nix
The Broncos have been linked to Bo Nix throughout the pre-draft process, and they’re the favorites to select the Oregon quarterback with odds as low as -175 on DraftKings.
However, it’s questionable whether or not Bo Nix is a first-round-caliber quarterback.
Daniel Jeremiah’s most-recent top 50 had Nix as the 29th-ranked prospect, while the Athletic’s consensus big board ranked Nix 33rd.
At 24 years old, Bo Nix is no spring chicken, but that experience also gives him a leg up with his pre-snap understanding and field vision.
Nix has adequate athleticism and arm strength, and he’s excellent at avoiding negative plays, with the lowest turnover-worthy play rate and eighth-lowest pressure-to-sack rate in the country last season per PFF.
Nix also led the country with an 85.5% adjusted completion rate and threw with consistent anticipation.
However, Nix had an average target depth (aDOT) of just 6.8 yards, which was the fifth-lowest in the country last year.
Questions will persist about how immediately translatable that low aDOT is to the NFL. Nix often relied on the first read in the offense and had one of the fastest times to throw in the country.
As a five-year starter at the collegiate level, Nix has seen it all, and he’s certainly become a far more polished passer since transferring from Auburn to Oregon.
However, only 9.5% of his targets went into tight windows, and only 10% went beyond the first read, according to Benjamin Solak of the Ringer.
According to PFF, 28.1% of Nix’s throws went behind the line of scrimmage.
If you want a point guard-type quarterback who will hit the layups and not take unnecessary risks, Nix is your guy. But that isn’t the profile of a first-round prospect in the NFL.
I am concerned about his success translating in what will inevitably be a far more demanding environment than he had while at Oregon.
Michael Penix Jr.
Like his Pac-12 compatriot, Michael Penix Jr. can often find his name on the fringes of first-round consideration.
He ranked 33rd overall in Daniel Jeremiah’s most recent top 50 and 38th in the Athletic’s consensus big board.
The Raiders (+260) and Vikings (+350) are the two favorites to draft Penix on DraftKings, with the Seahawks (+450) and Broncos (+550) close behind.
Penix threw for 4,906 yards and 36 touchdowns to 11 interceptions last season, leading Washington to a College Football Playoff berth and championship loss.
The arm strength is evident on film, and despite his funky left-handed throwing motion he gets a ton of velocity on his throws.
He also showcased plenty of arm talent to make consistent throws outside the numbers.
However, I have concerns about Penix’s ability to withstand pressure.
His adjusted completion rate dropped from more than 20% when under pressure per PFF, as his inconsistent timing and ball placement became more apparent.
Betting on the NFL?
Penix also scrambled just five times on 158 pressured dropbacks last season, showing limited mobility to extend plays or pick up yards on the ground.
Penix’s injury history also complicates his evaluation.
He suffered four season-ending injuries at Indiana before transferring to Washington, including two torn ACLs.
He had two healthy seasons at Washington with high-level productivity, but some teams might have him off their board entirely due to his medical history.
Ultimately, Penix has impressive arm strength, but his ball placement lets him down too often, as his 22.9% uncatchable pass rate is tied for the highest in this draft class per PFF. Penix’s experience and arm talent give him a decent floor.
However, he’s a 24-year-old quarterback with unresolved accuracy issues and questionable management of pressure. That’s the profile of a second-round pick, not a first-rounder.
Final verdict
All it takes is one team to fall in love with either Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. to hit the over on 4.5 quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
That being said, I wouldn’t have a first-round grade on either prospect, and I’m taking the plus-money on under 4.5 first-round quarterbacks.
The best price currently available is +160 on BetMGM, and I’d be comfortable wagering 1 unit on anything +150 or better.
BET: Under 4.5 quarterbacks drafted in Round One (+160, BetMGM)
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