This is one window the Giants are highly, highly unlikely to open for Saquon Barkley.
Teams in the NFL on Tuesday can start placing the franchise tag on players, a two-week period that extends through March 5.
Unlike last year, when the Giants tagged Barkley after failing to come to a long-term deal, there is no real sentiment whatsoever that they are interested in doing that this time around.
It is simply a matter of dollars and sense.
Last year, the franchise tag for a running back was $10.1 million.
If tagged again, Barkley would command a 20 percent increase in salary, a $2 million bump up to right around $12 million for the 2024 season.
Ask yourself this: Do you believe general manager Joe Schoen, when assessing this situation, feels Barkley earned a 20 percent raise based on what he did in 2023?
Barkley remained healthy all season in 2022 — for the first time since his rookie year of 2018 — and rushed for a career-high 1,312 yards.
The Giants, in the first year of the Schoen/Brian Daboll regime, were one of the league’s surprise teams, going 9-7-1 and winning a playoff game.
In 2023, Barkley missed three games with a high ankle sprain, ran for 962 yards and the Giants were one of the league’s most disappointing teams, going 6-11.
Of course, there are mitigating factors.
The Giants in 2022 put Daniel Jones on the field for every game they needed him to play.
In 2023, Jones made it into only six games as the Giants rode a Jones-Tyrod Taylor-Tommy DeVito quarterback carousel.
Turbulence at quarterback does not smooth the ride for the starting running back.
There were all sorts of dastardly offensive-line issues this past season for Barkley to navigate.
The bottom line is the Giants are not expected to allocate $12 million on their salary cap for one running back, especially someone they likely view as in decline.
The Giants have conducted studies at the position that show most running backs can trend upward through the age of 26.
Once 27 hits, there is a cliff off which most start to fall.
Barkley turned 27 on Feb. 9.
This is a much different scenario than last year — there is far less urgency now.
The Giants one year ago wanted to sign Barkey to a three-year contract, which would have given them the leverage of the franchise tag to hold over Jones during negotiations on his deal.
By guaranteeing Barkley $23 million over two years, the Giants figured they were going to get it done with Barkley, but he declined every offer.
There was no real appetite to allow him to test free agency — the team, after all, did so well in 2022 — and once Barkley was secured with the tag, there was no leverage with Jones, resulting in an eventual four-year, $160 million contract that drifted higher than the Giants wanted to see it go.
Schoen spoke briefly with Barkley a few days after the season but nothing of substance came out of that, other than relaying that the team and Barkley’s representatives would meet at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis the week of Feb. 26.
Teams on March 11 can begin opening contract negotiations with players outside their organizations.
It seems unlikely Barkley will see numbers from the Giants he wants to jump at in lieu of hitting the open market to explore what else is out there.
Barkley was one of three running backs hit with the franchise tag in 2023 and none of them were smash hits.
Josh Jacobs was the NFL rushing king in 2022 with 1,653 yards but he slumped to 805 yards in 13 games for the Raiders.
Tony Pollard ran for 1,007 yards for the Cowboys in 2022 and 1,005 yards in 2023, but his efficiency was way down, averaging 5.2 yards per carry in 2022 and 4.0 in 2023.
His total touchdowns were cut in half, from 12 to six.
The Giants also see this as a fairly saturated running back market with Barkley, Jacobs, Pollard, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekler, D’Andre Swift, Devin Singletary, Zack Moss and AJ Dillon all expected to be available.
Are any of these running backs going to command a contract averaging $10 million a year?
The Giants will make Barkley a credible offer and it remains to be seen if he accepts it or feels slighted, forgoes his “Giant for life’’ desire and accepts slightly more elsewhere — if there is a better deal out there for him.
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